A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
